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A moment on global climate change June 8, 2007

Posted by spacemom in : Current Affairs, Science , trackback

May 30, 2007:
On NPR, Michael Griffin, head of NASA had the following to say about global warming.

MR. GRIFFIN: I have no doubt that global — that a trend of global warming exists. I am not sure that it is fair to say that it is a
problem we must wrestle with. To assume that it is a problem is to
assume that the state of earth’s climate today is the optimal climate,
the best climate that we could have or ever have had and that we need
to take steps to make sure that it doesn’t change. First of all, I
don’t think it’s within the power of human beings to assure that the
climate does not change, as millions of years of history have shown,
and second of all, I guess I would ask which human beings - where and
when - are to be accorded the privilege of deciding that this
particular climate that we have right here today, right now is the
best climate for all other human beings. I think that’s a rather
arrogant position for people to take.

Bastard!
First, it is what many consider “Global climate change”. It’s not just
a warming of the planet, but major climatic changes across the
planet. We are threatening species, both flora and fauna with this
change.

Second, I take offense to the following part of the quote:

“First of all, I don’t think it’s within the power of human beings to
assure that the climate does not change, as millions of years of
history have shown, and second of all, I guess I would ask which human
beings - where and when - are to be accorded the privilege of deciding
that this particular climate that we have right here today, right now is the
best climate for all other human beings.”

Yes, climate changes. We know this. Start with some basics: the
inclination of the earth changes in a cyclic pattern. The eccentricity
of the earth’s orbit changes in a cyclic pattern. The sun has a solar
cycle that changes the amount of energy that is released into space
and hence towards earth. However, let’s look at the TIME SCALES we are
discussing:

Links: Ask a scientist
Axial Tilt of the Earth
The inclination of the Earth: Right now we are at around 23.5 degrees
of inclination to normal. With precession and the tilt changes, we can
actually get the inclination of the earth up to over 24 degrees.
Stop for a minute and think about that. The tropics will
EXPAND and be warmer during those periods. The Earth will warm up. We
are in a low inclination right now. How about the time scale? About
44,000 YEARS.

Link: Orbit of the Earth
The Earth orbits the sun in an ELLIPSE, not a circle. This ellipse
changes in time, about a 21,000 year cycle. The above link describes the
effects on climate much better than I could.

For those who don’t know, the Sun is a star. An active, evolving
star. It doesn’t just sit up in the sky, passive. It is a violent body
and it too undergoes cycles of change. Right now, we are gearing up
for something called “Solar Max”. Every 11 years, (22 if you count the
magnetic orientation of the sunspots), the Sun goes through a cycle of
sunspots. Starting somewhere in the 1200s up to the 1700s, there was a
“Little Ice Age” in the Northern Hemisphere. It
coincides with a period of low solar activity. This is known as the
“Maunder Minimum”. During this time, many people starved due to low
crop production and the economic ruin that followed. See here

Here is of the reconstructed temperatures for the last 1000 years.
Please refer to the wiki page for more details.
You will notice the RAPID increase during the last 70
years. This is the significant issue. We KNOW that greenhouse gases
make a different to our climate. That’s why we call them Greenhouse
gases.
Can you see the start of the run up coincides with the massive
production that the United States started during WWII? Remember that
from history? We got out of the Great Depression from the War. We
started really producing items and then world production took off
after the war.

Take the time to read this article on the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.

Climate on Earth can not be stable. It is not that easy. There are
numerous factors changing that. However, Earth is and has always been
in a delicate balance. Too much rain, we can’t grow the food we need
to survive. Too much sun, the same thing can happen. Too cold? We will
need fuel or movement to warmer locales to survive.

It is not that today is the “best climate for all human beings”. It is
that we are seeing a trend of damage to the climate that will take it
out of the safe envelope for humans to survive on Earth. Things are
not as simple as we cut out greenhouse
gas, the climate is stable. However, I find it “arrogant” (to use Mr. Griffin’s
words) to see a trend, see a possible cause, see impending damage
to other species and to do nothing about it.

Yes, there are some scientists who argue that the climate change is
not really caused by human actions. I respectfully disagree with
them. I believe a major contributor the the climate changes we are
experiencing IS human actions. And it is for US, the humans, to
make changes to deal with this.

Ahem, now off my soap box for today….

Comments»

1. OmegaMom - June 8, 2007

Hah! You’re going to get some weirdos showing up, the kind that write canned responses that are 40 paragraphs long…

Amongst other things, the question of whether this is the “optimum” climate for human beings is rather a silly question. Perhaps it isn’t. But everything in our society–agricultural uses of various geographical places, placement of ports, scheduling for supplies to heat or cool or fertilize or transport goods are all based on our *current* climate. So any climate change is going to require vast shifts in societal economic norms. (Just as a beginning.)

Secondly, what’s to guarantee that, “given” the “optimum” climate is just a little warmer than ours now, that the climate change will *stop* there. Poof! Climate changes to the “optimum”, and suddenly stops?

Thirdly, “optimum” for whom? A little bit warmer in the tropics, and some places become uninhabitable. A little bit warmer globally, and ice melts, and suddenly *other* places (highly populated places) become uninhabitable.

Fourthly, global climate change doesn’t just mean “warmer”. It means a shift in standard weather patterns. For instance, tornado season in the U.S. could become longer–meaning greater damage and more heartache for people. There was a cyclone/typhoon/hurricane that hit the Middle East this week. That’s pretty damned rare–what if it happens on a regular basis? Just think of the impact on the world’s supply of oil…

There was some news this week that the average temps around the world have increased much more rapidly than the *worst* scientific predictions of a few years ago.

And on and on…

2. Robin - June 8, 2007

I’m way too jetlagged to try to make sense of all this right now, but it looks like an interesting read for about 4am, when my kids (who’ve conveniently been sleeping since mid-afternoon) wake me up.

PS Now that I’m back and have some (ha!) time to catch up on blogs, can I get the password, pretty please :).

3. Geneviève - June 10, 2007

I totally agree with you, Spacemom! We should sit this guy down with a couple of Katrina refugees and see if he could look them in the eye while he says climate change could be a good thing!!!

Our own Prime Minister Stephen Harper is also being a dumba$$ about this, much to our great shame in front of the international community…